Avian flu - Background, spread, latest news

[PeterW]

There have been a number of posts recently enquiring about Avian Flu. I have tried to collect a number of links to sites of interest that porvide good reliable information on the subject. These include:

WHO Avian Flu Main Page - see the faqs and Facts (quite detailed) links and Cumulative cases page (URL not included here as it seems date related and iss likely to change as time goes on.

CDC Avian Flu pages - Especailly those on Infections in Humans, information on Pandemics and control and the Key Facts pages. There is also advice for those travelling

The information on the above sites will be impartial and up to date. Vads Corner also contains a large list of related links that may be of use / interest.

Currently as of 19th May 2005 the total number of human cases is still fairly low. Most have occured in Vietnam. However, this virus currently kills about 50% of those infected. As yet there is very limited evidence of human - human spread. The concern is that the H5N1 strain may mutate into a new variant capable of rapid spread like other common respiratory infections. One way for this to happen would be for H5N1 to recombine with a human strain, producing a hybrid with the pathogenicity (ability to cause disease) of avian flu, and the ease of spread of the human strain.

Should this happen, then the world would probably see a pandemic spreading quite quickly (remember SARS - but probably 100s times worse). Flu pandemics are not to be sneezed at (excuse the pun), in 1918 - 1919 the 'Spanish Flu' is thought to have killed about 50,000,000 (50 MILLION) people worldwide. It is thought currently that a pandemic would kill between 80,000 and 250,000 in the US alone. But, the numbers would be much higher in countries where the healthcare systems are not as good and general health levels are lower.

If anyone comes across any other useful sites, then add them to this thread. I have not (yet) managed to track down a site that gives a real time update of the epidemic in a map form.

Remeber, the stats given in this post were from 23rd May and could have changed. Hope this helps some people looking for information.

Peter (Biomedical Scientist - Virology)
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[paul]

Thanks for posting this, Peter... it's handy for everyone to have all the information easily available from within one post.

Paul
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[PeterW]

For maps the EUROPA site on Public Health has links from the page to a map of human cases dated April 2005 at the time of writing, and a map of avian cases, also form April 2005, with the human cases superimposed.

They are shoen below:
Doccumented Human Cases


Avain Cases (with human imposed)

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[PeterW]

Information on Tamiflu - (trade name for the drug oseltamivir), a medicine for the treatment on Influenza infections.

The drug does not prevent infection, but slows the spread of the virus through the body. This therefore attenuates (alters the course of) the infection. You should start treatment withing 48 hours of either getting symptoms or contact with an infected individual. It can cause side effects including nausea.
More information can be found on Medicenes.org.uk below is a quote from the FDA site.

[massageLondonUK]

when infected with bird flu Tamilfu should be taken twice a day - so 150 mg. I would suspect that for the larger/heavier persons another tablet should be added.

The trials of Tamiflu were done long ago before this medicine was introduced in the market and on other strains of influenza than Bird Flu H5N1 - but it's actually the only known medicine that works.
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